The long-term trend toward the consolidation of farms into fewer and larger ones is expected to continue over the 2006–16 decade and to result in a continued, moderate decline in employment of self-employed farmers and ranchers and little or no change in employment of salaried agricultural managers. Nevertheless, a number of jobs will be available due to the need to replace the large number of farmers expected to retire or leave the profession over the next decade.

Employment change. Employment of self-employed farmers is expected to decline moderately by 8 percent over the 2006–2016 decade. The continuing ability of the agriculture sector to produce more with fewer workers will cause some farmers to go out of business as market pressures leave little room for the marginally successful farmer. As land, machinery, seed, and chemicals become more expensive, only well-capitalized farmers and corporations will be able to buy many of the farms that become available. These larger, more productive farms are better able to withstand the adverse effects of climate and price fluctuations on farm output and income. Larger farms also have advantages in obtaining government subsidies and payments because these payments are usually based on acreage owned and per-unit production.

In contrast, agricultural managers are projected to gain jobs, growing by 1 percent—effectively little or no change in the occupation. Owners of large tracts of land, who often do not live on the property they own, increasingly will seek the expertise of agricultural managers to run their farms and ranches in a business-like manner.

Despite the expected continued consolidation of farmland and the projected decline in overall employment of this occupation, an increasing number of small-scale farmers have developed successful market niches that involve personalized, direct contact with their customers. Many are finding opportunities in organic food production, which is the fastest growing segment in agriculture. Others use farmers' markets that cater directly to urban and suburban consumers, allowing the farmers to capture a greater share of consumers' food dollars. Some small-scale farmers belong to collectively owned marketing cooperatives that process and sell their product. Other farmers participate in community-supported agriculture cooperatives that allow consumers to directly buy a share of the farmer's harvest.

Aquaculture may continue to provide some new employment opportunities over the 2006–16 decade. Concerns about overfishing and the depletion of the stock of some wild fish species will likely lead to more restrictions on deep-sea fishing, even as public demand for the consumption of seafood continues to grow. This has spurred the growth of aquaculture farms that raise selected aquatic species—such as shrimp, salmon, trout, and catfish—in pens or ponds. Aquaculture has increased even in landlocked States, as farmers attempt to diversify.

Job prospects. Job prospects are expected to be favorable for those who want to go into farming. With fewer people wanting to become farmers and a large number of farmers expected to retire or give up their farms in the next decade, there will be some opportunities to own or lease a farm. The market for agricultural products is projected to be good for most products over the next decade, and thus many farmers who retire will need to be replaced. Farmers who produce corn used to produce ethanol will be in particular demand as ethanol plays a greater role in energy production as fuel for automobiles. Farmers who grow crops used in landscaping, such as trees, shrubs, turf, and other ornamentals, also will have better job prospects, as people put more money into landscaping their homes and businesses.

Farmers, ranchers, and agricultural managers held nearly 1.3 million jobs in 2006. About 80 percent are self-employed farmers and ranchers, and the remainder is agricultural managers. Most farmers, ranchers, and agricultural managers oversee crop-production activities, while others manage livestock and dairy production. Most farmers and ranchers operate small farms on a part-time basis.

The soil, topography of the land, and climate often determine the type of farming and ranching done in a particular area. California, Texas, Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas are the leading agricultural States in terms of agricultural output measured in dollars. Texas, Missouri, Iowa, Kentucky, and Tennessee are the leading agricultural States in terms of numbers of farms.

For general information about farming and agricultural occupations, contact either of the following organizations:

• Center for Rural Affairs, P.O. Box 406, Walthill, NE 68067. Internet: http://www.cfra.org
• National FFA Organization, The National FFA Center, Attention Career Information Requests, P.O. Box 68690, Indianapolis, IN 46268. Internet: http://www.ffa.org

For information about certification as an accredited farm manager, contact:

• American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, 950 Cherry St., Suite 508, Denver, CO 80222. Internet: http://www.asfmra.org

For information on the USDA's program to help small farmers get started, contact:

• Small Farm Program, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Cooperative State, Research, Education, and Extension Service, Stop 2220, Washington, DC 20250. Internet: http://www.csrees.usda.gov/smallfarms.cfm

For information about organic farming, horticulture, and internships, contact:

• Alternative Farming System Information Center, NAL, 10301 Baltimore Ave., Room 132, Beltsville, MD 20705. Internet: http://www.nal.usda.gov
• ATTRA, National Sustainable Agriculture Information Service, P.O. Box 3657, Fayetteville, AR 72702. Internet: http://www.attra.ncat.org

To learn more about how technological and other changes are affecting agricultural careers, see the Occupational Outlook Quarterly article "Farming in the 21st century: A modern business in the modern world," online at http://www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/2005/spring/art02.pdf and in print at many libraries and career centers.